NASA StreaM

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-06-08T16:34:03Z ## Message ID: 20260608-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-06-08T15:35Z. The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-06-06T16:15Z (see notifications 20260606-AL-002 and 20260606-AL-003) are likely caused by the arrival of the CME with ID 2026-06-03T01:53:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260603-AL-003, 20260603-AL-004, 20260603-AL-010, 20260603-AL-013, 20260603-AL-014), the CME with ID 2026-06-03T07:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260603-AL-009, 20260603-AL-013, 20260603-AL-014), and/or the CME with ID 2026-06-03T11:48:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260603-AL-011, 20260603-AL-013, 20260603-AL-014). The arrival of these CMEs was detected at L1 by ACE at 2026-06-05T04:23Z (see notification 20260605-AL-001). NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted. Activity ID: 2026-06-06T16:15:00-RBE-001. ## Notes: The arrival of this CME was associated with a moderate geomagnetic storm with ID 2026-06-05T15:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20260605-AL-004 and 20260605-AL-005).

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-06-06T20:44:57Z ## Message ID: 20260606-AL-005 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-06-06T14:11:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20260606-AL-001, 20260606-AL-004). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 36 ensemble members (see notes section), 36 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-06-08T01:01Z and 2026-06-08T13:57Z (average arrival 2026-06-08T06:50Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 63% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 6-8 range (moderate to severe). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-06-06_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO085/20260606_141100_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO085_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-06-06_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO085/20260606_141100_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO085_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-06-06_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO085/20260606_141100_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO085_Earth_stack.gif ## Notes: The CME event with ID 2026-06-06T14:11:00-CME-001 is also predicted to impact Lucy at 2026-06-16T22:14Z, BepiColombo at 2026-06-07T03:06Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-06-09T12:45Z, and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-06-08T20:06Z, Juice at 2026-06-10T05:00Z (glancing blow), and STEREO A at 2026-06-09T02:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notifications 20260606-AL-001, 20260606-AL-004). This CME event (2026-06-06T14:11:00-CME-001) is associated with an M1.8 flare from Active Region 14461 (S22E24) with ID 2026-06-06T13:40:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-06-06T14:01Z. Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-06-06_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO085/Detailed_results_20260606_141100_ncmes1_sims36_M2M-SWAO085.txt ###

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-06-05T18:09:07Z ## Message ID: 20260605-AL-005 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2026-06-05T15:00Z to 2026-06-05T18:00Z. The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2026-06-05T04:23:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20260605-AL-001) and the arrival of CME with ID 2026-06-03T01:53:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260603-AL-003, 20260603-AL-004, 20260603-AL-010, 20260603-AL-013, 20260603-AL-014), CME with ID 2026-06-03T07:23:00-CME-001 (see notifications 20260603-AL-009, 20260603-AL-013, 20260603-AL-014) and/or CME with ID 2026-06-03T11:48:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260603-AL-011, 20260603-AL-013, 20260603-AL-014). NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted. Activity ID: 2026-06-05T15:00:00-GST-001. ## Notes:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) ## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for May 27, 2026 - June 02, 2026 ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-06-03T21:10:26Z ## Report Coverage Begin Date: 2026-05-27T00:00Z ## Report Coverage End Date: 2026-06-02T23:59Z ## Message ID: 20260603-7D-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels during this reporting period with 4 M-class flares, 1 O-type CME, and 16 C-type CMEs (see details below). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth: CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2026-05-30T01:38Z NASA missions near Earth at at 2026-06-02T19:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 2-3 (below minor) (see notification 20260530-AL-002). Analysis is ongoing to determine if the arrival of this CME was observed at L1 on 2026-06-03. 2026-06-02T17:23Z NASA missions near Earth at at 2026-06-05T08:00Z (minor impact), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor) (see notification 20260602-AL-003). It was also estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact the listed locations: CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2026-05-30T08:38Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-06-01T05:11Z, BepiColombo at 2026-05-31T14:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2026-06-13T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260530-AL-001). 2026-05-31T23:36Z Solar Orbiter at 2026-06-02T18:47Z, BepiColombo at 2026-06-02T00:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2026-06-12T18:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20260601-AL-001). 2026-06-01T19:00Z Mars at 2026-06-05T12:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-06-05T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260602-AL-001). 2026-06-01T19:09Z Mars at 2026-06-05T12:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2026-06-05T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260602-AL-001). 2026-06-02T17:00Z BepiColombo at 2026-06-03T12:00Z (glancing blow), Solar Orbiter at 2026-06-04T16:00Z (glancing blow), Juno at 2026-06-15T12:00Z (minor impact) (see notification 20260602-AL-002). 2026-06-02T17:23Z Europa Clipper at 2026-06-07T02:00Z (minor impact), OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-06-06T06:00Z (minor impact), Juice at 2026-06-07T18:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20260602-AL-003). Geomagnetic activity was at below minor levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 1000 pfu for the entire reporting period. The integral flux of the > 10 MeV protons at GOES, the flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels at SOHO, and the flux of the 13-100 MeV protons detected at STEREO A were above background levels at the beginning of the reporting period but below each spacecraft's respective threshold due to the O-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2026-05-25T22:12Z. These fluxes subsided to near-background levels by the end of 2026-05-28. Later in the reporting period, the flux of 13-100 MeV protons detected at STEREO A increased above background levels but remained below the threshold of 10^-1 pfu/MeV on 2026-05-30. This relative increase is likely associated with the C-Type CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-05-30T08:38Z. The energetic proton fluxes at STEREO A returned to background levels later on 2026-05-30 and remained at background levels alongside other observed fluxes through the end of the reporting period. Space Weather Impact: Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been low to minor this reporting period due to the slightly elevated solar energetic particle fluxes described above. ##Events: Flares (M-class and above) Date Start Stop Peak Class Location 2026-05-29 06:40:00 07:24:00 07:04:00 M1.1 N14E62 ( 14455 ) 2026-06-02 04:42:00 04:47:00 04:45:00 M1.2 S25E80 ( 14461 ) 2026-06-02 09:51:00 10:19:00 10:05:00 M1.2 N11E01 ( 14455 ) 2026-06-02 16:31:00 16:56:00 16:50:00 M3.3 N13W05 ( 14455 ) CMEs (>500 km/s): Earth directed: Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time) 2026-05-30T01:38Z ~503 C -30/-1 10 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES 2026-06-02T17:23Z ~672 C 5/9 14 STEREO A Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky): Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time) 2026-05-27T01:38Z ~532 C NONE(POS)/-32 17 STEREO A 2026-05-27T02:24Z ~521 C -90/43 17 SOHO 2026-05-29T18:00Z ~521 C -1/65 24 SOHO, STEREO A 2026-05-30T08:38Z ~776 C -168/23 51 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES 2026-05-30T19:00Z ~551 C NONE(POS)/-63 10 SOHO, GOES 2026-05-31T18:00Z ~519 C 110/15 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES 2026-05-31T23:36Z ~889 C -148/30 42 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES 2026-06-01T09:24Z ~608 C NONE(POS)/-29 10 SOHO, GOES 2026-06-01T10:36Z ~881 C NONE(POS)/-23 10 SOHO, GOES 2026-06-01T19:00Z ~519 C 120/-39 33 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES 2026-06-01T19:09Z ~1031 O 127/-26 17 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES 2026-06-01T23:00Z ~836 C NONE(POS)/-14 10 SOHO, GOES 2026-06-02T03:12Z ~612 C -15/60 13 SOHO, STEREO A 2026-06-02T07:24Z ~801 C -3/55 16 SOHO, STEREO A 2026-06-02T17:00Z ~866 C -121/26 36 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES ## Space Weather Outlook: ## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2026-06-03T00:00Z ## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2026-06-09T23:59Z Solar activity may vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently eight numbered Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14455 (N13W16) produced three M-class flares during the reporting period and has produced two M-class flares and one X-class flare during the outlook period (see notifications 20260603-AL-001, 20260603-AL-002, 20260603-AL-005, 20260603-AL-006, 20260603-AL-007, 20260603-AL-008). This active region may continue to exhibit flaring activity through the outlook period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low and moderate or severe levels during the outlook period. Potential increases in geomagnetic activity may be associated with the anticipated combined arrival of the three O-Type CMEs first observed in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-06-03T01:53Z, in STEREO A COR2 at 2026-06-03T07:23Z, and in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2026-06-03T11:48Z. These CMEs are predicted to impact missions near Earth around 2026-06-04T23:44Z (+- 7 hours) (see notification 20260603-AL-013). Additionally, a coronal hole centered around (N00W42) (as seen in available imagery from SDO/AIA 193) may reach geoeffective longitudes on or around 2026-06-03 and also be a source of increased geomagnetic activity during the outlook period. ## Notes: SCORE CME typification system: S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s C-type: Common 500-999 km/s O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.0 Flare ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-06-03T11:49:00Z ## Message ID: 20260603-AL-008 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare start time: 2026-06-03T11:19Z. Flare peak time: 2026-06-03T11:28Z. Flare intensity: X1.0 class. Source region: N14W16 (Active Region 14455) (based on SDO imagery). Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available. Activity ID: 2026-06-03T11:19:00-FLR-001. ## Notes:

Large, bright, loop CME first seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-05-31T23:36Z. The source of this event is wide opening field lines seen originating from beyond the NE limb beginning at approx. 2026-05-31T22:57Z in SDO AIA 171, 193 and GOES SUVI 284.

https://webtools.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/HSS/46487/-1

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe, Mars, Psyche) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-26T17:56:24Z ## Message ID: 20260526-AL-008 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. Start time of the event: 2026-05-26T02:12Z. Estimated speed: ~820 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 24 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): 119/33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates. Activity ID: 2026-05-26T02:12:00-CME-001 Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Parker Solar Probe, Mars (minor impact), and Psyche (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach Parker Solar Probe at 2026-05-27T02:24Z, Mars at 2026-05-29T08:00Z, and Psyche at 2026-05-29T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-05-26T02:12:00-CME-001): https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260526_064500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260526_064500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260526_064500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260526_064500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260526_064500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260526_064500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif ## Notes: SCORE CME typification system: S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s C-type: Common 500-999 km/s O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (STEREO A) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-26T11:35:49Z ## Message ID: 20260526-AL-005 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Solar energetic particle event detected by STEREO A. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2026-05-26T04:07Z. NASA spacecraft at orbits near STEREO A can be impacted. Activity ID: 2026-05-26T04:07:00-SEP-001. ## Notes: This SEP event (2026-05-26T04:07:00-SEP-001) is associated with O-type CME with ID 2026-05-25T22:12:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260526-AL-002).

https://webtools.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/SEP/46379/-1

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (GOES) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-26T00:26:20Z ## Message ID: 20260526-AL-003 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Solar energetic particle event detected by GOES. The flux of > 10 MeV protons exceeds 10 pfu starting at 2026-05-26T00:15Z. NASA spacecraft at MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO can be impacted. Activity ID: 2026-05-26T00:15:00-SEP-001. ## Notes: This SEP event (2026-05-26T00:15:00-SEP-001) is associated with O-Type CME with ID 2026-05-25T22:12:00-CME-001 (see notification 20260526-AL-002).

https://webtools.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/SEP/46373/-1

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - SEP (SOHO) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-25T23:57:55Z ## Message ID: 20260525-AL-003 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Solar energetic particle event detected by SOHO. The flux of one or more of the >15.8 MeV protons channels exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2026-05-25T23:34Z. NASA spacecraft at L1 and near-Earth orbits can be impacted. Activity ID: 2026-05-25T23:39:00-SEP-001. ## Notes: This SEP event (2026-05-25T23:39:00-SEP-001) is associated with O-Type CME with ID 2026-05-25T22:12:00-CME-001.

https://webtools.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/SEP/46371/-1

https://webtools.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/SEP/46365/-1

https://webtools.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/SEP/46366/-1

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Continued Radiation Belt Enhancement ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-24T14:24:00Z ## Message ID: 20260524-AL-003 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux remains elevated, recently crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu at 2026-05-22T10:25Z. The elevated energetic electron flux levels observed since 2026-05-24T06:40Z (see notifications 20260516-AL-003, 20260516-AL-004, 20260518-AL-001, 20260520-AL-001, and 20260522-AL-002) are caused by the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream which started on 2026-05-15, reaching maximum sustained speeds of approximately 740 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 330 km/s. NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted. Activity ID: 2026-05-16T15:20:00-RBE-001. ## Notes: This coronal hole high speed stream is also associated with interplanetary shock with ID 2026-05-15T07:14:00-IPS-001 (see notification 20260515-AL-001) and geomagnetic storm with ID 2026-05-15T21:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20260516-AL-001, 20260516-AL-002).

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Europa Clipper, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2026-05-16T18:38:46Z ## Message ID: 20260516-AL-006 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. Start time of the event: 2026-05-16T16:36Z. Estimated speed: ~1201 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): 9/37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates. Activity ID: 2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001 Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Europa Clipper (glancing blow) and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Europa Clipper at 2026-05-20T21:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-05-19T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-05-19T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor). Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001): https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260516_192700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif ## Notes: This CME event (2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.9 flare from AR 14436 (N22W17) with ID 2026-05-16T15:50:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-05-16T16:12Z. SCORE CME typification system: S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s C-type: Common 500-999 km/s O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

https://webtools.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/RBE/46199/-1